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Jianfa shares (600153): The performance is in line with expectations, and the actual business has begun to enter the period of profit release.

Jianfa shares (600153): The performance is in line with expectations, and the actual business has begun to enter the period of profit release.

Jianfa shares (600153): The performance is in line with expectations, and the actual business has begun to enter the period of profit release.

2018 results are in line with expectations Jianfa Development announced its 2018 results: preliminary revenue of 2804% (+ 28%), attributed to the net profit of the mother 46.

700 million (+ 40%), net of non-attribution net profit 42.

500 million (+ 69%, non-recurring gains and losses from 8.

100 million fell to 4.

300 million), in terms of ratio, gross profit margin increased by 1.

4ppt to 6.

9%, net profit margin increased by 0.

1ppt to 1.

7%.

In terms of single quarter, operating income reached 9.7 billion (+ 31%) in the fourth quarter of 2018, and gross profit margin increased by 4.

2ppt to 11.

At 8%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 74% to 29 per year.

500 million, net profit margin increased by 0.

8ppt to 3.

0%, operating cash flow from last year’s net inflow of 18.6 billion to 4.8 billion, basically in line with expectations.

In terms of business, the real estate business contributed most of the profit growth, and the supply chain business grew steadily: in 2018, the supply chain accounted for 84% of revenue, real estate accounted for 72% of net profit attributable to mothers, and the gross profit margin of the supply chain business declined slightly.

2ppt to 2.

9%, gross profit margin of real estate business rose 8.
.

9ppt to 35.

4%.

We expect the net profit of non-attributed mothers to increase by 17.

Of the 300 million, the first-level land development contributed 1.4 billion (81%), and the supply chain business contributed 1.

300 million net profit increase (8%), and the residential business contributed 200 million net profit increase (12%).

Development trend Supply chain trade continues to gain market share, and the change in gross profit per ton is small: We are still optimistic that Jianfa will 天津夜网 continue to gain market share in supply chain trade. The growth rate of substitute steel + mineral products is about 30%, which is much higher than the industry average.3%, and Jianjian’s shares are backed by the Xiamen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The financing cost is very low (close to the benchmark interest rate), the discipline of risk control is strong, and the risk exposure in previous years has not exceeded 5%.

The real estate business is deeply cultivating “new Chinese-style” residences, and has entered the period of profit release: Jianfa + Lianfa is the 23rd-ranked real estate company in the country, with a good land storage location. At present, the area of second-tier cities and above accounts for more than 50%.The value accounts for 60%, most of which are distributed in the 深圳桑拿网 Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu and Chongqing, and a series of sales are growing rapidly. It is expected that 2019/20 will enter the settlement cycle.

And the overall first-level land development still has a net profit of 5.4 billion to be confirmed.

Earnings Forecast We fine-tune the profit for 2019 / 20e to 52.

7/63.

10,000 yuan.

Estimates and recommendations The company is currently sustainable at 9.

35 yuan, corresponding to 19/20 5 years.

0/4.

2x P / E.

We re-recommend the level and maintain the target price of 12.

1 yuan (29.

4% upside), corresponding to 19/20 6.

5/5.
4 times P / E, the dividend yield in 2019 has reached 6.
0%, strong stable return attribute.

Risk infrastructure fell short of expectations; real estate restructuring policies tended to be tight; interest rates in the commodity market fluctuated.