SDIC Power (600886)： Further optimization of power supply structure for listed thermal assets transfer
SDIC Power (600886): Further optimization of power supply structure for listed thermal assets transfer
Event: The shares of the 6 thermal power companies listed and sold by SDIC Power announced that all of them have been traded. Among them, 55% of Beibu Gulf has changed its “Ownership Transaction Contract” and the transfer price in November with Guangxi Investment Group.
910,000 yuan; the remaining five companies’ equity on December 27 and China Coal Energy Supply “allocation transaction contract”, the transfer price of 18.
09 million yuan.
The total transfer price of the shares of the six companies was US $ 2.4 billion.
Comment: Investment advice: Regardless of the increase in profits generated from the asset sale and the one-time disposal gain, 杭州桑拿网 maintain the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.
84 yuan, giving the company an average of 15 times PE in 2019, maintaining a target price of 11.
1 yuan to maintain overweight.
The asset transfer price is high, and the PB estimate is higher than the average of the thermal power sector.
The average PB of assets transferred this time is 1.
5 times, although slightly lower than the first listing price (the first listing price is about 26 billion yuan, comprehensive PB1.
63 times; after the completion of the sale, the total consideration is about 2.4 billion, which is a comprehensive PB1.
5 times), but the current thermal power sector is estimated to be only 0.
93 times, the sale price is estimated to be higher than the industry average.
In the short term, it will have a positive impact on the company’s 2020 performance of about 600 million.
It is expected that the sale of assets will be completed in the first quarter of 2020, and the official change of business will be formally published, which will have a positive impact on the company’s performance: a) Replacement of thermal power asset replacement: The listed assets in 2019 are expected to have an impact on the company’s profit of about -100 million (2019H1 is -0.
500 million), so in 2020, this part of the asset replacement will contribute about 100 million profit increments; b) one-time disposal investment income: It is expected that the company will increase one-time disposal investment income by 700-800 million next year.
Taking into account the above two points and the tax rate and other factors, it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers will increase by about 600 million in 2020.
In the long run, the company’s power supply structure will be further optimized. In the future, it will focus on large hydropower and large thermal power.
The listed company sold 3.91 million kilowatts of installed thermal power capacity (replacement of poorly profitable thermal power). After the transfer of listed assets is completed, the company will focus on large hydropower (16.72 million kilowatts of total installed hydropower capacity and core assets of Yalong River Hydropower) andFor large thermal power (11.85 million kilowatts of total installed thermal power, more than 60% of the million-kilowatt generating units, the highest in the industry), the power supply structure has been further optimized, which is conducive to the company’s scale.
It is expected that the remaining thermal power assets will not be sold in the short term: considering that the remaining thermal power assets replace one million kilowatt units or assets with better profitability, the company is expected to continue operations in the short to medium term and will not be sold for the time being.
Risk factors: Incoming water falls short of expectations, and project advancement falls short of expectations