Hesteel (000709)： Profitability hits record high “Differential” environmental protection policy will release crop elasticity
Hesteel (000709): Profitability hits record high “Differential” environmental protection policy will release crop elasticity
I. Performance: Net profit attributable to mothers increased by 99 in 2018.
6%, cash dividends accounted for 29%, the profit in Q1 2019 significantly changed the industry in 2018: the company produced 2680 steel, the replacement was reduced to 0.
(1) Revenue increased by 11.
0%, the income structure is inclined to sheet metal; (2) the price of the affected raw materials rises, the construction in progress is transformed, and the operating cost increases by 9% to 1037 ‰; (3) the interest-bearing budget scale is stable, but the affected financing cost center moves upward, financialExpenses increased by 19% to USD 4.4 billion, sales expenses increased by 7% to 11 billion per year, and management expenses increased by 6% to 2.4 billion; (4) Impairment losses on fixed assets and impairment losses on clearing and clearing of fixed assets were significantly reduced.The impairment loss fell to 84% to 1 in ten years.
5.3 billion; (5) The net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 99 each year.
6% to 3.6 billion; (6) The basic income will increase by 88% to 0 every year.
32 yuan; (7) Expected average ROE is 7.
18%, an increase of 3 a year.
Net profit attributable to mothers in 2018 hit a new high since the company went public in 1997.
The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, and the cash dividend stack will reach 10.
6.2 billion, accounting for 29% of the net profit attributable to the parent company that year.
2019Q1: The company’s revenue increased by 17% to 29.4 billion in ten years, and net profit attributable to mothers fell by 1% to 3 in ten years.
According to Mysteel, rebar, hot coil and cold coil are reduced by 35%, 44% and 62% every other time. It is expected that the company’s 2019 profit performance will translate into the industry average or the reason for the next output of the “differentiated” off-peak production policyThe increase is obvious.
Second, the plan for 2019: The company’s planned production material 2577 in 2019 is expected to be substantially the same as the actual output 2578 in 2018. Considering the “one size fits all” before the environmental protection policy and policy, we will switch to “differentiated” production limit. In combination with production capacity, we judgeThe company’s production and operation target completion rate in 2019 may exceed 100%.
Technological innovation, quality improvement and efficiency improvement move towards the mid-to-high end of the industrial value chain.
Third, investment advice: We expect the EPS for 2019-2021 to be zero.
30 yuan, corresponding to the closing price on April 26, 2019, the corresponding PE for 2019-2021 is 12.
11 times, the corresponding 2019 PB is 0.
As the second largest steel listed steel company in China, the company has significant scale, technology, products, and advantages. The “differentiated” environmental protection policy has weakened the company’s production capacity and output. The company’s production capacity or flexibility is expected to be gradually repaired.The company’s PB estimate may be repairable until 2016-2018, the company’s PB_LF estimated center is 0.
Around 79 times, the corresponding reasonable value is 4.
13 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.
4. Risk warnings: Macroeconomics exceeds expected downlink; raw material prices exceed expected growth and erosion rates; uncertainty of environmental protection policies; supply-side structural reforms 杭州夜生活网 exceed expectations.